New San Francisco planner, no mention of climate

The only reason I point to this story in the San Francisco Chronicle is its lack of any mention of environmental concerns in the list of urgent issues the new hire will need to tackle. This in spite of the fact the the Chronicle just launched its online Green publication.

Yes, that's one of the points of Climate Frog - we'd better begin our adaptation planning now because every place has a long list of important issues already on the table. If adaptation has to wait in line until the impacts are upon us, we may find that most of today's big zoning and housing debates were lacking some key considerations.

An abnormal wind hits home

Literally and figuratively. Just after I posted the last article asking when "disaster" becomes accepted as normal, what has been a normal serious Alaskan front winter storm here in Mill Valley became a hurricane force monster with gusts up to 75 mph blasting across the flatlands that run in alignment with the wind, straight off of Richardson Bay. The big eucalyptus trees across the road were being pushed to angles we'd never seen in 14 years. Then, around 10:30 AM, the whole building (it's an 8-unit, 2-story apartment) shook as if hit by a 2-ton pillow, and there was a loud explosive sound. Not like the electric transformers up the road, that were popping off every ten minutes. But like the building had been whacked with a giant trash can lid.

I put on my Precip jacket and waterproof boots and stepped out the door to see this:

That black shape draping over the trees is a 3o-foot square, 1500-lb chunk of insulated roofing.

Now, I'm not about to claim that this unprecendented wind gust is the spawn of the devil-global-warming. I'm just telling you that the weather has got my attention here in Mill Valley. We're also averaging about 47 degrees for our temperature over December and January. That's down by about 8 degrees from the historical average.

Right now, we're having one of our more familiar winter storms, with minor flooding all around and some slides being reported on area roads. Our reservoirs are still below the level they should be at in late January, but with another storm or two like this one, we should be catching up.

And meanwhile, the workers are still repaing the two units that were flooded when the roof fkew away in the midst of a wind-powered torrential downpour. Just a taste of what storm damage is all about - four of the eight units had to be vacated.

The Storm of Our Residency

Maybe not the storm of the century, but over the 16 years we've lived in our building today's onslaught of wind and rain has outdone the many Pacific storms that have blown through this location. The ground has not become saturated yet - that usually happens after a couple frog-chokers like this one - and yet one of the nearby eucalyptus trees that has withstood many a stiff gale finally went down this morning.

The tidal inlet that reaches into Mill Valley up to Blithedale Avenue rose, with storm surge and high tide, to within a foot of overflowing onto the street.

And to top things off (so to speak) about a third of the roof of our building blew off with a thunderous BOOM, landing on the patio.

So I think I've finally had my AHA moment where I realize what increasingly intense weather is all about. Batten down the hatches! It ain't over yet.

Who'da thunk that we'd need a roof that would stand up to 70 mph winds? Now we know.

Local adaptation: making new water where there's not enough

The idea has been raised several times in the 25 years I've lived in Marin County, but this time there seems to be much more resolve around it - to build a desalination plant to provide potable water to supplement the county's watershed-collected source.

We've been through dry periods here since 1983; I distinctly remember a 7-year period spanning the late '80s and early '90s when low-volume showerheads were distributed and we all put bricks or filled plastic containers in our toilet tanks to conserve water. If we don't get at least our average rainfall this winter, we'll certainly be facing a water shortage next summer.

According to the drought forecast map maintained by the U.S. Government's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) , Marin County sits near the northern boundary of the "persistent drought" region in the American Southwest. Just north of us is the region labeled "dought ongoing, some improvement."


The prospects look threatening enough that the Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD) has released a report to begin the environmental impact study of the various energy sources required to power the plant. The project is proposed to roll out in three progressive stages, each adding 5 million gallons a day to the county's supply. In addition to adding water, the project adds substantionally to the county's energy needs.

The energy requirements summarized in Table 1 indicate that the projected electricity demand for operation of a new desalination plant will be substantial, representing an 85%, 162% and 246% increase above current MMWD electricity needs for the 5 mgd, 10 mgd and 15 mgd capacity phases, respectively.

The county is considering many alternative energy sources, from methane harvested at the county landfill to photovoltaic arrays and even tidal energy generators. This could be a good test case of how fast adaptation planning can progress at this time, when a crisis may be looming within the next year. We've got the situation in Georgia staring us in the face - a stark illustration of what happens to a region without a backup plan for drought.

Even in the best case scenario, Marin won't be harvesting potable water from the San Francisco Bay in time to alleviate a water shortage in 2008. But will there be enough public support to fast-track this alternative water supply? Or will the project entail too many environmental questions and compromises to gain the support of Marin's varied constituencies?

Agricultural Adaptation in the Central Valley

California's semi-arid Central Valley is one of the great garden regions of the world, but its fertility depends almost entirely on water transported over distance to irrigate its fields, vinyards and orchards. In recent decades, many farmers have converted acreage from annually-planted field crops to permanent crops such as nuts and grapes. But as this L.A. Times story describes, the current drought and changes in state water allocations is forcing many farmers to consider reversing the process. The impact will first hit the farmers themselves, forcing them to adapt their businesses to a more uncertain future water supply. But in the short run, it doesn't seem that consumers will need to adjust to shortages or higher prices. There are still fruits and vegetables being produced in Central and South America.

"My water manager calls it an impending Armageddon, and I would probably agree with that," said Bob Polito, who grows avocados in Valley Center in San Diego County.

California farmers probably will take 82,000 acres out of cultivation next year if the state gets an average amount of rain and snow this winter, according to a study commissioned by Western Growers, which represents the California and Arizona produce industries.

The economic loss would reach at least $69 million in farm production, according to the study.

Prices for consumers probably wouldn't change because cuts in supply could be replaced by imports. But the state's overall agricultural output would be affected, said Chris Scheuring, a lawyer with the California Farm Bureau Federation's natural resources and environmental division.

Wildfire close to home

Looking out my home office window, Mt. Tamalpais can be seen through the haze of smoke that has drifted north from San Diego. Appropriately, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story today about how the homes on the slopes of Mt. Tam are one of the most at-risk homes in the Bay Area.

We've had a few days of heavy rain and it's tempting to think that the fire season is over for us. We haven't had anywhere near the heat and extended drought of San Diego. Yet a fire department engineer stationed on the slopes of the mountain told the reporter, "We regularly take the fuel moisture reading here, and the fuel load right now is at 64 percent. Sixty-six percent is what we consider critical, so I'd say we have to be pretty careful right now."

Not your father's wildfire

Yeah, Southern California is a natural desert area and yes, it gets especially dry every year in early fall. And yes, the Santa Ana winds blow every year creating a heightened risk of fast-moving fire. But this year the conditions were different. It had been hotter and drier through this past summer. The winds blew harder. And housing development further into the brush was just tempting disaster.

My friend, Paul, who lives in San Diego, tells me that San Diego County used to have a 40 acre minimum lot size in the backcountry and there was intense debate on changing the zoning. In what is called GP 2020, the general plan is to make room for a million more residents by 2020. Here's a Sierra Club call for action sent to its members in 2003. It calls for lower density development, lower population and (as a result) less commute traffic in what was were the rural boundaries of eastern San Diego. It could be argued that development alone did not cause the current firestorm, but obviously the exposure of more housing to the potential of wildfires stretches the ability of fire departments to respond and protect. In other words, you move into one of those developments and YOU'RE ASKING FOR IT. Impacts on insurance, taxes, lives and our collective emotions are unavoidable.

The Chief of the U.S. Forestry Service, Gail Kimbell, says, "Fires are burning hotter and bigger, becoming more damaging and dangerous to people and to property. Each year the fire season comes earlier and lasts longer." And as the same S.F. Chronicle article points out:

The 16 wind-blown fires that forced the largest mass evacuation in California history may or may not be the result of climate change, but studies have shown that the hot drought conditions that fed the flames are becoming more common.

The flames stretching from Malibu to the Mexican border struck during the driest year in Southern California history. Measurements taken by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection detected less than 10 percent moisture in the region's vegetation. The moisture level in kiln-dried lumber is generally 12 percent.

"They got less rain than they've ever gotten," said Hugh Safford, a Forest Service ecologist. "Any time you have a dry year like this one, you are going to get fires."

It is so dry that state forestry officials said a newly shod horse started a fire earlier in the year from the sparks it created running on the pavement.

Chronically drier than normal conditions promotes the growth of invasive plant and insect species that may add to flammable material. We all know about the bark beatles that are killing off conifers and leaving forests of firewood. And sources of ignition - specifically lightning - are predicted to increase with the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Other experts quoted in the Chronicle article pointed out that the Santa Ana winds had sustained longer than usual in fanning the San Diego flames. And though none could say for sure that the fire was a result of climate change, it was undeniable that the smoke from the fires is contributing to global warming.

One link that can be made, according to Tom Bonnicksen, a California forest and wildfire expert, is how the fires are contributing to global warming. Almost 20 million tons of greenhouse gases - the equivalent of what is emitted in one year by 3.6 million cars - have been spewed into the atmosphere, he said.

"The problem isn't global warming causing fires," he said. "The real problem is these fires contributing to the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming."

All of which could be a foreshadowing of worse problems in the future. Kimbell said the fire threat in California and other states is more severe because cities are now pushing up against the wilderness.

Hard Choices for Local Government

If your community or region is going to prepare itself for CC impacts, it's going to need local politicians who are willing to educate themselves and advocate energetically in the face of more immediate issues. We're lucky to have a couple of staunch, environmentally informed local supervisors on our board of 5 members. Unfortunately 2 does not give them a majority vote.

The Marin Countywide Plan is being updated and one of the most contentious issues is the zoning of several hundred acres adjacent to an old but still operating rehabilitation center for boys, called the St. Vincent Home. Most of its property consists of a flat meadow between highway 101 and the San Francisco Bay - land that is vulnerable to sea level rise and that the county's Planning Commission had zoned as part of the the Bayfront Corridor where no development is to take place. That parcel of land is also one of the last remaining available areas where low-cost and senior housing could be built in the county.

If climate change looms as a serious threat in Marin's future, even more immediate is the dramatic demographic shift that will happen as we Boomers reach our senior years. Unless more senior housing is provided, many of us will be forced to relocate to other areas within the next 20 years. The over-65 demographic is by far the fastest growing one in Marin, and there has been a strong movement to reclaim the St. Vincent property from the Bayfront Corridor zoning.

Yesterday I attended the Board of Supervisors hearing where this zoning question was debated. Over 140 citizens made verbal comment, with environmentalists standing up for preserving the zoning and most of the seniors and low-cost housing advocates speaking for building out on the property. It was a wonderful demonstration of democracy in action. Too bad "our" side lost.

Yes, we do need to provide for the aging population, and yes, a levee could be built to protect the new development from a 1-meter rise in the level of the Bay. But these facilities will not help reduce Marin's huge ecological footprint by taking vehicles off the roads. The units will be isolated from any shopping areas or medical services and I'm sure more imaginative and convenient solutions could be found for locating the same facilities.

Most significant to me, though, were the fact that the County now acknowledges the threat of a 1-meter sea level rise and the quote by my local supervisor, Charles McGlashan, who told a reporter, "We are fighting, in my view, a race against potential extinction." Yes, those could very well be the stakes.

And as to the 1-meter sea level rise, I'm following up with McGlashan's aides to find out if that threat is being applied to the rest of the County's coastline. If it's recognized as a threat to a large, currently uninhabited wetland and meadow, it should certainly be considered as one in the many inhabited and developed coastal locations.

LA Times calls for adaptive restrictions

The record-breaking drought in Southern California adds emphasis to what everyone has always known - the story of California is the story of its water sources. This is especially so in the southern half of the state, which is naturally a desert area. In the previous article I noted that local government leaders were holding water rationing as their trump card in dealing with the drought, but the Los Angeles Times, in its editorial for September 13, takes those so-called "leaders" to task for not seeing water rationing as the intelligent adaptive action that it is.

First, the editorial acknowledges the recent court ruling that restricts the amount of water that L.A. can get from the Sacramento Delta in the northern half of the state.

Two weeks ago, a federal judge ruled that state and federal water projects must limit the pumping operations that move fresh water through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and into the southern part of the state -- all to protect the delta smelt, an endangered fish considered a bellwether for that region's fragile ecosystem. That may sound arcane, but it has serious everyday consequences. The water that flows through the delta serves 25 million people, providing more than a third of Southern California's supply. Officials estimate that the judge's ruling could cut off more than 30% of delta deliveries for at least a year.

Let's emphasize that - "for at least a year." Then, in justifying immediate restrictions on water use in the L.A. region, the writer describes the risks facing the viability of its current main water sources.

...given the profound uncertainties facing the state's water system, the choice to wait on mandatory restrictions is puzzling. As Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa reminded Angelenos in June when he called for (as yet unrealized) voluntary 10% reductions in water use, low local rainfall, diminished Sierra snowpacks and prolonged drought conditions on the Colorado River have combined to make this year L.A.'s driest ever. The effects of global warming on future water supplies are still unknown. And endangered species aren't the only threat to delta pumping: A breach in the region's unstable levees could shut down operations at any moment.

A more inspiring and productive response would capitalize on the sense of urgency and call on Los Angeles to do its part to address wider water woes now. Careful consideration of proposals to re-engineer the delta should be one part of the effort; serious dedication to conservation, another. Planners across the state should think twice before they allow development of lush suburbs or vast farmlands in hydrologically-challenged regions. All Californians will have to work for a water system that works for everyone.

[[Article appendage, Sunday September 16]]

Today's LA Times carries an article that at least partially explains the issue that was at the center of the above editorial, i.e. why no water restrictions have been imposed. It seems that the drought of 1990-91 taught water managers a lesson: keep plenty of water in reserve. So, as this article by Hector Becerra describes, the L.A. area can make it through this year's drought OK. But there may be more reason to believe now that those water reserves will not be so easily replenished, so the Water District is still planning to impose restrictions as a way to help residents get used to life with less water. A good adaptive strategy.

Officials say they learned from that drought and spent the ensuing years building up water reserve capacity. Despite the record dry conditions, the Metropolitan Water District has 14 times more reservoir and groundwater storage than it did in 1991, with many local reservoirs flush with water. This is giving the region a buffer against a reduction in supplies from Northern California and the Colorado River.

Moreover, the region has learned to conserve in dramatic fashion.

In 1991, the average household used 210 gallons of water a day. Today, thanks to low-flow toilets, new shower heads and changes in behavior, that number has declined to about 180 gallons, according to water officials.

In a sign that the conservation message is sinking in, the Metropolitan Water District said it delivers the same amount of water -- 2.1 million acre feet a year -- to Southern California now as it did in 1990. That's despite having 3 million more customers.

Water officials warn that more restrictions -- and possibly higher rates -- are on the way in the coming months. But they said this was not yet a crisis.

In fact, water officials and weather experts believe that further restrictions might result in enough savings to deal with the continued dryness and a recent court ruling that could yield a 30% reduction in water deliveries from Northern California.

Moreover, they argue that mandatory water reduction is important because Southern Californians need to learn how to do more with less as the region's population grows and water supplies remain finite.

It was dry....(How dry was it???) so dry that...

So dry that they've invented the term "The Perfect Drought." This is Southern California I'm talking about. This from a report by the ABC-TV affiliate in L.A.

Southern California is now in its eighth year of an extended drought. But what would happen if that drought lasted for decades, or even a century? Some experts say the pieces are falling into place for a so-called "perfect drought," and it could have devastating consequences for California.

This was supposed to be the climate change future? What happened to put in into the present? WTF????

2007 will go down on the books as Southern California's driest year in recorded history. Fires raged out of control. Millions of dollars were lost as California crops shrivel in the searing sun. And the Eastern Sierras, where L.A. gets most of its water, marked its second lowest snowpack on record.

Adaptation? Well some farmers are packing it in, that's how they're adapting.

"We didn't plant this time for the first time in 85 years," said Betty Bouris of Bouris Ranches.

The Bouris family has been farming in Riverside County since 1922. This year, the lack of rain forced them to lay off long-time employees and auction off their farming equipment.

"I think it hit home to me when I walked into the parts room that was absolutely stocked, and I went in there and all the shelves are empty because all the parts were sold," said Bouris.

Adaptation? How about instituting more rigid rules for water use?

"If this continues for another year or two like this, we'll have a full-fledged drought and we'll need to take more drastic steps," said David Nahai, president of Department Water and Power (DWP).

Drastic steps, such as a return of the drought busters who roamed the streets of L.A. issuing citations during our last major drought from '87 to '92.

But it's gonna return to "normal" soon, right?

Government forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have announced they believe another La Nina is on the way. That weather phenomenon is a periodic cooling of surface temperatures in the Pacific that's expected to bring drier-than-normal conditions this fall to an already drought-stricken Southern California.

Future lifestyles for the non-rich-and-famous in California

If, as William Collins reported to us at the California Climate Change Conference, our state is in for longer and hotter heat waves, one helpful person has put together a list of 17 Cheap Ways To Keep Cool And Survive A Heat Wave.

Start thinking now of adjusting your summer California lifestyle to incorporate these survival tips, behaviors and habits.

To summarize (the descriptions are worth reading, too!):

#1 Visit the beach, lake or river.
#2 Visit water amusement parks.
#3 Find a community pool (or someone else’s pool).
#4 Buy an inflatable swimming pool.
#5 Install air conditioning.
#6 Circulate the air with fans.
#7 Make sure your house is well insulated.
#8 Install a whole house fan (in the attic or basement).
#9 Change your air filters.
#10 Use a programmable thermostat.
#11 Plant more trees and get some shade.
#12 Visit cooler spots.
#13 Slow down.
#14 Drink a lot!
#15 Wear the right clothes.
#16 Avoid humidity.
#17 Stick your feet out of your blankets.

Hopefully, your town will still allow you to fill a backyard pool. And...blankets?

Longer, hotter heat waves for California

William Collins was the keynote speaker for yesterday's California Climate Change Conference. Collins is a professor at U.C. Berkeley and a senior scientist and head of the department of Climate Science at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He has a Ph.D. in astrophysics and he's conducted research on the observation and modeling of the Earth's climate system at both the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Scripps Institute of Oceanography. He is a lead author of the IPCC Assessment, Working Group I, which covered the physical science of global warming.

His talk was titled "the Future of California's Climate from a Global Perspective." (see here for the slides) He came loaded with explanatory graphics and statistics, and was suitably cautious in getting anywhere near predicting specifics, so the conclusions of his analysis were conservative. And here they are:

• Recent climate change is very likely human-induced.


• Near-term climate change before 2030:


• Western US will be noticeably warmer compared to climatology.


• Predictions converge across models and scenarios.


• This convergence could facilitate process of adaptation.


• Long-term climate change by 2100:


• Extremes include less frost, more dry spells, longer heat waves.


• Warming increases with increasing levels of atmospheric CO2.


• There are real prospects for more dynamic coupling of climate modeling, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.

A closer look at sea level risk for the San Francisco Bay region

In previous articles I've pointed to sites like Future Sea Level, which focuses on the prospects and impacts in the San Francisco Bay region and the National Environmental Trust page that shows animations of several major U.S. cities being inundated by rising seas. These give you the general idea, but can't tell you much about incremental sea level rise because the sensitivity of their maps to vertical elevation are so crude. With low vertical resolution, it's difficult to estimate just how much damage will be done a by "minor" sea level rise of, say, one meter.

One of the presenters at the California Climate Change Conference this past Monday was Noah Knowles, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, based in Menlo Park, CA. He presented some new maps of the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento Delta that provide a much more accurate assessment of the risks of inundation due to sea level rise. Here's the PDF of his presentation with samples of their maps. Below is an image of San Francisco showing the Embarcadero and downtown areas.


Using photogramettry - where aerial photographs taken from six different angles were digitally processed to yield maps with vertical scale accuracy of 10-20 cm - combined with tide data, he described the current situation where, on a daily basis, about 500 square kilometers of tidal land and land protected by levees are below water level at high tide. With a 1-meter rise in sea level, that area would increase by 30% and would - under the current circumstances - be inundated at high tide. That would include all of the levee-dependent islands and agricultural lands of the Delta and much developed land surrounding the Bay including much of our highway system.

Solfest - celebrating sustainable living in NorCal

The small village of Hopland, California stradles the Redwood Highway, about a 2-hour drive north of San Francisco. The presence of the redwoods is just starting to come on when you reach Hopland, but you approach the town with vinyards, not trees, blanketing much of the open space. The road takes a long gentle curve to the right and then you see the huge photovoltaic array directed at the southern sky. They call the array Solar 2000, and it sells power (160,000 kWh annually) into the grid to provide income for Solar Living Institute (SLI), the non-profit organization that runs the Solar Living Center, whose 12-acre facility beyond the solar panels was marked by an interesting variety of trees.

Last Saturday I was there at Solfest, "the Greenest Show on Earth," an annual cross-gathering of tribes representing appropriate technology, craftmaking, homesteading and music. This was Solfest #12, but it was my first. I've been to Solar Living Center and the store that was the seed for it all - Real Goods - on many occasions over the 24 years I've lived in California.

In many respects, Solfest is both an exhibition and party thrown by the rural residents of Mendocino County. I've got strong, working hippie roots from 12 years living on the Farm and I know there are now three generations of hippie culture thriving in the forests of northern California. Around a few small towns like Ukiah, Eureka and Fort Bragg, the settlements in this region are far flung, with a strong sense of local organization combined with homesteader-like independence and self reliance. Solar energy, composting, home gardens, building with natural materials and biofuel are not just curious experiments to these people; they are all survival technologies for the living in the boondocks.

Though Solfest may not be familiar to many outside of California (an informal raising-of-hands poll done by the founder, John Shaeffer, in his welcome speech indicated very few attendees from outside of Northern Cal.) the festival probably represents the most powerful representation of how high tech is being adapted for sustainable living. Solfest is also a great example of how adopting sustainable living practices can be celebrated rather than regarded as a desperation obligation in the face of looming catastrophe. And in that respect, it reminded me of the upside of moving in the sustainable direction.

Climate Frog is about getting out of the pot before the water gets too hot, but it's also about the joy of getting out of that confinding pot.

The Weekend Backlog

Take a couple days off from posting and stories pile up.

How do you deal with local ordinance "deniers"? A S.F. Chronicle writer rants about lawn-waterers during a growing water shortage: So Where's the Drought-rage?

It's like watching someone clean out their car and just toss all the garbage onto the street. Do you say anything? Is it worth it? Just watching this river forming in the gutter is its own form of water torture. Is it time to engage in complete and total DROUGHT-RAGE!?

We ain't seen nothin' yet. British meteorologists forecast that global warming will become more intense after 2009.

Global warming is forecast to set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record...

A major insurer describes the changing landscape of risk management. Lloyd's Chairman speaks:

Above all, what insurers want to see is a focus on contingency planning. Preparedness is key – yet you may be surprised to know that many businesses aren’t ready to face disaster when it strikes. In our recent research, almost 40 per cent of business leaders admitted that they do not have adequate disaster plans in place to respond to terrorist attacks². Some think that contingency planning is too expensive, but in fact the most important steps for surviving a crisis often cost little. Being unprepared can be the most expensive strategy of all.

California Dreamin' - at least we've reached the point where the analysts can say "more analysis needed." This is part of the California Climate Change Portal.

In response to Executive Order S-3-05, the California Energy Commission and the California Environmental Protection Agency commissioned an assessment of potential climate change impacts to California entitled “the Scenarios Project”. This report summarizes the findings from individual research efforts and compares them with earlier studies. Findings include increases in temperature, changes to the hydrologic cycle, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events. More information and analysis is needed to understand the vulnerability of economic sectors, ecosystems, and human health.

Global Warming remedies will be expensive. As if we hadn't guessed. But this NY Times story provides examples, dollar signs and lots of zeros. Of course, if you compare it to the cost of our military adventure in Iraq, it ain't so much.

Global warming is by nature a big-enough problem to create the kind of necessity that could be mother, father and midwife to invention. And plenty of big ideas are out there to address it, some that may even lead to substantial enterprises much as our military needs have

Report from the Redwoods

We spent 3 nights in Humboldt Redwoods State Park in northern California. Here's a short (1 minute) video clip taken of a grove between the road and the south fork of the Eel River. Though a puny camera has a hard time depicting the scale of the mighty vegetables in this grove, it's typical of most of the 52,000 acres of the park, with some humongous trees and many youngsters, under 1,000 years old. Redwoods gain most of their mature height by the age of 100, then beginning increasing their girth.


The Save the Redwoods League was formed in 1918 to preserve this stand of trees as so many were being logged. Many groups purchased groves along this valley, with the state providing $6 million in matching funds.

This environment receives an average of over 65 inches of precipitation per year. Temperatures vary between summer highs of around 90 to winter lows of around 40. Since many of these trees are over 1300 years old, we know that the climate has remained pretty steady for that long. Redwoods don't do well in extreme heat or drought. They tolerate regular flooding, as the Eel very often overflows and submerges the bases and root systems of many of the trees along its bank. But since redwoods suck up 150+ gallons of water each day, a little extra water is not a problem.

The redwoods are the canary in the coal mine for the continuation of our Californian Mediterranean climate.

Acting Locally - My home turf

As I've posted before, I live close by the San Francisco Bay, about 30 feet in elevation above where a small creek enters an estuary of Richardson Bay. A good part of Mill Valley is flat, barely above sea level, as are many other residential and business neighborhoods in Marin County, and some sections of the one main traffic artery that runs north-south through the county - Route 101, "the redwood highway."

The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission has done some studies of the impact of sea level rise and reported early this year on its findings. Relevant to where I live, it tells us (according to the Independent Journal, the county newspaper):

Sometime over the next century huge shoreline swaths of Marin, including Hamilton Field, Highway 37 and the Tamalpais Valley could be under water if global warming causes the bay to rise by a meter, according to the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission.

Additionally, wild and extreme swings in the climate brought on by warming could have an impact on Marin's water supply.

There's an illustrative map of my immediate environs (I live in the upper left corner) and where the new water would spread with a one-meter rise in sea level. I know the intersection below my house would be under water at high tide, blocking one of two main thoroughfares into Mill Valley.

The county is already warning that our once-secure local water supply (unlike most of the state, we have never needed to pipe in water from a distance) is now proving inadequate to supply the growing population of mostly high-priced homes and landscaping. So we face the expense and experimental nature of a desalination plant on the Bay shore.

Over the course of the 25 years I've lived here, I've watched weather maps from the rest of the nation and confirmed for myself that our weather is among the most stable and mild. When that changes, we will surely notice.

This report from the U.S. Geological Survey describes the impact of an El Niño-generated rise in sea level on the S.F. Bay Area in the winter of 1998.

Throughout the first week of February 1998, high winds and heavy rains combined with abnormally high tides to wreak havoc in the San Francisco Bay region. The Pacific Ocean surged over parking lots and the coastal highway at San Francisco's Ocean Beach, and whitecaps up to 6 feet high splashed over the city's waterfront Embarcadero for the first time in recent memory. Elsewhere, U.S. Highway 101 north of the Golden Gate Bridge was flooded by as much as 4 feet of water from San Francisco Bay, and other low-lying areas around the bay were also swamped, forcing hundreds of people to flee their homes.

So it's not like we haven't been warned by experience. To our credit, Mill Valley has a helpful Web site about disaster preparedness. Though it doesn't address sea level rise, it does provide good instruction for preparing for wildfires, floods, landslides, storms and earthquakes.

Hazard Mitigation in California

California has a Hazard Mitigation Portal maintained by the Governor's Office of Emergency Services. Hazards listed include Fire, Flood, Earth Movement (Landslide), Seismic (Earthquakes, Tsunamis) and Other Hazards.

Other includes Avalanches, Drought, Freezes, Insect Pests, Civil Disturbances, Dam Failure, Hazardous Material Spills, Polution, Terrorism, Volcanoes, and Less Significant Hazards.

Hurricane's are one of the "Less Significant Hazards," along with nuclear power accidents, tornadoes, airline crashes, computer breaches and train derailments.

In assessing whether or not hurricanes present a threat to California, the state currently relies on information found in the USA Today Weather Book by Jack Williams, which dismisses the possibility with this statement:

No hurricanes have hit California in recorded history because tropical storm winds generally blow from east to west, but California is affected by heavy rain resulting from tropical winds that blow north from Mexico and become colder by the time they hit California.

Thus, recorded history determines policy. In fact, though California certainly faces enough threats that have historically been devastating - earthquakes, wildfires, inland flooding and mudslides - the mitigation planning does not even consider the effects of climate change. Nowhere is sea level rise mentioned, or the possibility that eastern Pacific hurricanes may reach further north than before, or the possibility that both drought and extreme rainfall will become even greater threats than before.

Yes, California is leading the way in state-promoted green programs, but given its long coastline and its vulnerability to weather extremes, one can only hope that contingency planning will take place for the changes we're beginning to see in our daily climate.

Records gathered by NOAA show the mean sea level at San Francisco has risen by about 0.2 meters (about 7 inches) from 1850 to 2000. For an interesting - and scary - comparison, check out the graph for Grand Isle, Louisiana.